Russia Clings To Syria Military Bases As Assad Falls

Russia is holding on to the main naval and air bases it uses as staging points for the Mediterranean and Africa, even as it pulls its forces back from smaller outposts in Syria following the overthrow of its ally Bashar al-Assad.Satellite imagery reviewed on Tuesday showed no signs of a Russian withdrawal from the Tartus naval base or Hmeimim air base near Latakia, both on the west coast of Syria.These facilities were critical for enabling the Kremlin to support Assad’s now-fallen regime in the Syrian civil war, but also serve as a key logistics bridge for Russia to the south.The Kremlin has said the future of its bases in Syria will depend on negotiations with the new authorities after the Assad regime was toppled by rebel forces led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.Assad fled the country on Sunday after HTS took the Syrian capital, Damascus, and was given asylum in Russia by President Vladimir Putin.Losing the bases in Syria could cost Russia a permanent presence for its navy in the Mediterranean, as well as a stop-off point for operations in Africa, said Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

The Ilyushin Il-76, Russia’s mainstay Soviet-era heavy transporter aircraft, has a flight range of 4,200km with a medium load. Without access to a Syrian base, Russia’s forces would need to use one or possibly several other airfields to conduct far-flung operations.“Obviously, Russia would like to retain at least a symbolic presence at these bases, so its defeat doesn’t look so obvious.

But whether that happens or not depends on how the political process in Syria itself develops,” Luzin said.