On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million.
This means that all "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.
Between 600,000 and 1,000,000 jobs could be eliminated, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs analysts, who expect a significant downward revision of the preliminary NFP data. This revision may indicate that the labor market was far weaker than previously thought, which could cause the market to move significantly.
Such a revision would have extensive consequences. Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy would probably change if the updated NFP data reveals a significant decline in employment. At present, the market is factoring in slight reductions in interest rates for the upcoming year.
However, more aggressive rate cuts earlier than anticipated could result from a weaker-than-expected job market.
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