A new report on Gaza’s escalating health crisis projects that due to the extent of destruction wrought upon the region’s infrastructure since October, thousands of Palestinians will continue to die from disease, malnutrition, dehydration and starvation, regardless of whether Israel continues to pursue its military assault.
“In case of an escalation, we’d see around 85,000 deaths,” warns Zeina Jamaluddine, a nutritionist and epidemiologist who is one of the lead authors of “Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections” from the London School of Hygiene and Johns Hopkins University.
Jamaluddine also says it is not too late to stop the bulk of these forecasted deaths, should a ceasefire be immediately put into place and aid deliveries resumed. “In case of a ceasefire now, we would be saving around 75,000 lives.”
With no epidemics occurring, the projection for the ceasefire scenario would be 6,550 excess deaths, for the status quo scenario 58,260 excess deaths, and for the escalation scenario 74,290 excess deaths.
With epidemics occurring, the projection for the ceasefire scenario would be 11,580 excess deaths, for the status quo scenario 66,720 excess deaths, and for the escalation scenario 85,750 excess deaths.
The breakdown of water and sanitation, inadequate shelter and insufficient food intake leads to a projected high risk of excess deaths from endemic infectious diseases, particularly respiratory tract infections. If infectious disease epidemics occur, cholera, measles, meningococcal meningitis, and polio are epidemics projected to potentially cause the most excess deaths.
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